Producer Paul’s Picks: Week 3

Producer Paul’s Picks: Week 3
September 19, 2013, 9:15 am
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I don’t see how Andy Reid loses in his Philadelphia homecoming Thursday night. A highly decorated leader who feels wronged by a cause and the people he dedicated the majority of his professional career to?

This is General Hummel executing a well laid out plan to commandeer rockets loaded with VX gas and pointing them directly at Lincoln Financial Field. Except this rogue commander won’t get cold feet at the last minute, the people of Philadelphia can only hope he burns a timeout at the worst possible time and it blows up in his face.

Andy Reid knows the key players on that offense, probably better than Chip Kelly does. Kelly made sure to point out that doesn’t mean Reid knows the scheme, which is all well and good, but here is what Reid does know:

Hit DeSean Jackson hard and high one time. He’ll quit.

Wait Dunta Robinson is on the Chiefs?  

(googles DeSean Jackson, Dunta Robinson hit just to watch it again).

Dear God.  

Quick side note - Here’s the part of that play no one talks about – DeSean, with his afterburner speed, was flying THROUGH A ZONE COVERAGE instead of sitting down in the soft part of the zone. I’m not saying it is his fault he got his head taken off…actually, wait, yes. That is exactly what I’m saying.

Anyway, Robinson doesn’t have to hit Jackson, he doesn’t even have to line up across from him. It’s probably better for KC if he lines up on the other side of the field so Jackson is constantly trying to find him and wondering if No. 21 is going to lay him out again. The mere thought of it might cause DeSean to not show up.

Michael Vick can’t consistently diagnose blitzes and where pressure is coming from. Reid knows better than anyone how to force Vick into terrible decisions. It surely kept him up countless nights before it cost him his job. Oh and hit him too, the Eagles QB will make sure the Chiefs defenders get their opportunities.

LeSean McCoy is the Eagles’ best weapon, one the pass-happy Reid would even admit under truth serum he never utilized as well as he should have. But McCoy’s first priority is his number of touches. If the Chiefs can’t contain or even slow him down, which is no easy task against the shifty McCoy, the KC defenders can always focus on knocking the ball out of Shady’s Dr. J-esque cradle grip.

Make no mistake, this is personal for Big Red. The 2012 Eagles quit on him. They didn’t pull a Jerry Dantana and intentionally sabotage the season, it was a more of a complete institutional failure dating back to the post-lockout ‘Dream Team’ moves in which Reid played a central role. But everyone inside and outside that locker room knew coming in last season that Reid’s job was on the line, and as soon as a 3-1 start turned into 3-5 (at the latest), Reid was by his lonesome on Island Avenue.

Reid was never popular with the Philadelphia media, and many fans were ready to send him packing long before his job was ever in danger, but the majority of his players were (and are) fiercely loyal. The Chiefs are still in the very early stages of the honeymoon period with a rejuvenated Reid. Tack on the fact that they’re 2-0, and the Kansas City players will run across the Ben Franklin bridge and through Camden in the dead of night if it means it will bring home a win for The Kool Aid Man.

There is a reason, before last year’s team quit on him, that a Reid-led team had never lost after a bye week. Say what you want about his in-game management, clock management, lack of challenge success (actually do we have to? My fingers will fall off) but there is not a coach in the league that enters a game better prepared than the one (out of five) time NFC champion Reid. And as much as he had no doubt imagined all the innovative ways he could utilize Vick, Reid himself could not have created a better quarterback to operate his offense than Alex Smith.

This is not a short week in terms of preparation for the Chiefs, this is since the day Reid left Philadelphia/day Chip Kelly got hired (less than two weeks later) preparation.

I’m gonna out on a limb and say Eric Berry fulfills his highly desired goal of picking off Michael Vick.

Chiefs 21 Eagles 20
(Chiefs + 3)

Packers - 2.5 at Bengals
The Packers win this game by at least a touchdown right?

Patriots -7 vs. Bucs
I know New England isn’t blowing anyone out, and there’s always Darrelle Revis but shouldn’t this line be like -10?

Giants +1 at Panthers
Even though 0-3 doesn’t kill you in the NFC East, I will be shocked if the Giants lose.

Steelers +2.5 vs. Bears
Call me crazy (and so far my track record suggests you should), this is where the Steelers cling to some life and the Bears are exposed as…the Bears.

Texans -2.5 at Ravens*
*The play here is the under 45. If Duane Brown is out for this week (sprained toe), the Texans probably still get by even though Ryan Harris is a significant downgrade.
Should it linger (tune into SportsTalk Live at 5 Thursday to get a doctor’s opinion!), and with Seattle and San Francisco looming, it doesn’t jeopardize any playoff hopes, it would just be disappointing to not see the Texans at full strength against the two NFC favorites.

Saints – 7.5 vs. Cardinals
I do not believe this demands any further comment.

Lions +2.5 at Redskins
Yea…what I said about 0-3 in the NFC East earlier…I see that happening here.

Titans -3 vs. Chargers
So by the transitive property of the Texans….um…Gregg “not the D-coordinator” Williams > Philip Rivers.

Dolphins -2.5 vs. Falcons
Home field or not, Atlanta injuries or not, predicting a win in Indy or not, this line is very surprising to me. Which means we will be living in a world where the Dolphins will be 3-0.

Seahawks -19 vs. Katy High School
You could make the argument, coming off a big divisional win at home, playing at home again against the hapless Jaguars, total let down game…you could, but no one would listen to you – now or ever again.

Cowboys -4 vs. Rams
I was going against Dez & Romo last week in fantasy football and it could not have started worse. Or ended better.

Jets -3 vs. Bills
One of these teams will be 2-1 after this.

Vikings -6 vs. Brian Hoyer
Hoyer in one career game started (with Arizona last year vs SF): 19-34, 225, TD, INT. To be fair, the 49ers did play their starters.

49ers –10 vs. Colts
Just when my fantasy pick of Ahmad Bradshaw looked like it was going to pay off! Oh well, Trent Richardson.

And it allll comes full circle: Teacher (Harbugh) > pupil (Luck).

Come to think of it, both my parents are teachers…wait a second…

Raiders +15 at Broncos
Re: Duane Brown, it could be much, much worse Texans fans. Just ask Ryan Clady. (Brown aside, looking long term, things continue to break Houston’s way….)

Season: 11-18-1

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