Producer Paul’s Picks: Week 3

Producer Paul’s Picks: Week 3
September 19, 2013, 9:15 am
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I don’t see how Andy Reid loses in his Philadelphia homecoming Thursday night. A highly decorated leader who feels wronged by a cause and the people he dedicated the majority of his professional career to?

This is General Hummel executing a well laid out plan to commandeer rockets loaded with VX gas and pointing them directly at Lincoln Financial Field. Except this rogue commander won’t get cold feet at the last minute, the people of Philadelphia can only hope he burns a timeout at the worst possible time and it blows up in his face.

Andy Reid knows the key players on that offense, probably better than Chip Kelly does. Kelly made sure to point out that doesn’t mean Reid knows the scheme, which is all well and good, but here is what Reid does know:

Hit DeSean Jackson hard and high one time. He’ll quit.

Wait Dunta Robinson is on the Chiefs?  

(googles DeSean Jackson, Dunta Robinson hit just to watch it again).

Dear God.  

Quick side note - Here’s the part of that play no one talks about – DeSean, with his afterburner speed, was flying THROUGH A ZONE COVERAGE instead of sitting down in the soft part of the zone. I’m not saying it is his fault he got his head taken off…actually, wait, yes. That is exactly what I’m saying.

Anyway, Robinson doesn’t have to hit Jackson, he doesn’t even have to line up across from him. It’s probably better for KC if he lines up on the other side of the field so Jackson is constantly trying to find him and wondering if No. 21 is going to lay him out again. The mere thought of it might cause DeSean to not show up.

Michael Vick can’t consistently diagnose blitzes and where pressure is coming from. Reid knows better than anyone how to force Vick into terrible decisions. It surely kept him up countless nights before it cost him his job. Oh and hit him too, the Eagles QB will make sure the Chiefs defenders get their opportunities.

LeSean McCoy is the Eagles’ best weapon, one the pass-happy Reid would even admit under truth serum he never utilized as well as he should have. But McCoy’s first priority is his number of touches. If the Chiefs can’t contain or even slow him down, which is no easy task against the shifty McCoy, the KC defenders can always focus on knocking the ball out of Shady’s Dr. J-esque cradle grip.

Make no mistake, this is personal for Big Red. The 2012 Eagles quit on him. They didn’t pull a Jerry Dantana and intentionally sabotage the season, it was a more of a complete institutional failure dating back to the post-lockout ‘Dream Team’ moves in which Reid played a central role. But everyone inside and outside that locker room knew coming in last season that Reid’s job was on the line, and as soon as a 3-1 start turned into 3-5 (at the latest), Reid was by his lonesome on Island Avenue.

Reid was never popular with the Philadelphia media, and many fans were ready to send him packing long before his job was ever in danger, but the majority of his players were (and are) fiercely loyal. The Chiefs are still in the very early stages of the honeymoon period with a rejuvenated Reid. Tack on the fact that they’re 2-0, and the Kansas City players will run across the Ben Franklin bridge and through Camden in the dead of night if it means it will bring home a win for The Kool Aid Man.

There is a reason, before last year’s team quit on him, that a Reid-led team had never lost after a bye week. Say what you want about his in-game management, clock management, lack of challenge success (actually do we have to? My fingers will fall off) but there is not a coach in the league that enters a game better prepared than the one (out of five) time NFC champion Reid. And as much as he had no doubt imagined all the innovative ways he could utilize Vick, Reid himself could not have created a better quarterback to operate his offense than Alex Smith.

This is not a short week in terms of preparation for the Chiefs, this is since the day Reid left Philadelphia/day Chip Kelly got hired (less than two weeks later) preparation.

I’m gonna out on a limb and say Eric Berry fulfills his highly desired goal of picking off Michael Vick.

Chiefs 21 Eagles 20
(Chiefs + 3)

Packers - 2.5 at Bengals
The Packers win this game by at least a touchdown right?

Patriots -7 vs. Bucs
I know New England isn’t blowing anyone out, and there’s always Darrelle Revis but shouldn’t this line be like -10?

Giants +1 at Panthers
Even though 0-3 doesn’t kill you in the NFC East, I will be shocked if the Giants lose.

Steelers +2.5 vs. Bears
Call me crazy (and so far my track record suggests you should), this is where the Steelers cling to some life and the Bears are exposed as…the Bears.

Texans -2.5 at Ravens*
*The play here is the under 45. If Duane Brown is out for this week (sprained toe), the Texans probably still get by even though Ryan Harris is a significant downgrade.
Should it linger (tune into SportsTalk Live at 5 Thursday to get a doctor’s opinion!), and with Seattle and San Francisco looming, it doesn’t jeopardize any playoff hopes, it would just be disappointing to not see the Texans at full strength against the two NFC favorites.

Saints – 7.5 vs. Cardinals
I do not believe this demands any further comment.

Lions +2.5 at Redskins
Yea…what I said about 0-3 in the NFC East earlier…I see that happening here.

Titans -3 vs. Chargers
So by the transitive property of the Texans….um…Gregg “not the D-coordinator” Williams > Philip Rivers.

Dolphins -2.5 vs. Falcons
Home field or not, Atlanta injuries or not, predicting a win in Indy or not, this line is very surprising to me. Which means we will be living in a world where the Dolphins will be 3-0.

Seahawks -19 vs. Katy High School
You could make the argument, coming off a big divisional win at home, playing at home again against the hapless Jaguars, total let down game…you could, but no one would listen to you – now or ever again.

Cowboys -4 vs. Rams
I was going against Dez & Romo last week in fantasy football and it could not have started worse. Or ended better.

Jets -3 vs. Bills
One of these teams will be 2-1 after this.

Vikings -6 vs. Brian Hoyer
Hoyer in one career game started (with Arizona last year vs SF): 19-34, 225, TD, INT. To be fair, the 49ers did play their starters.

49ers –10 vs. Colts
Just when my fantasy pick of Ahmad Bradshaw looked like it was going to pay off! Oh well, Trent Richardson.

And it allll comes full circle: Teacher (Harbugh) > pupil (Luck).

Come to think of it, both my parents are teachers…wait a second…

Raiders +15 at Broncos
Re: Duane Brown, it could be much, much worse Texans fans. Just ask Ryan Clady. (Brown aside, looking long term, things continue to break Houston’s way….)

Season: 11-18-1

Texans - Team News
Garrett Graham - TE
Garrett Graham caught two passes for 24 yards in the Texans' Week 7 loss to the Steelers. Graham was targeted three times, but dropped the other. It can be considered one of Graham's better statistical games of the season, which obviously means he's nowhere near...
Oct 20 11:31PM Read More
Andre Johnson - WR
Andre Johnson caught five passes for 77 yards in the Texans' Week 7 loss to the Steelers on... Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins each saw a team-high nine targets. There was nothing special about Johnson's night. His biggest play was a 24-yard grab on a deep in route in...
Oct 20 11:25PM Read More
DeAndre Hopkins - WR
DeAndre Hopkins caught six passes for 108 yards in the Texans' Week 7 loss to the Steelers on... Hopkins and Andre Johnson each saw a team-high nine targets. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw it to whichever receiver was working against embattled Steelers CB Cortez Allen. ...
Oct 20 11:16PM Read More
Alfred Blue - RB
Alfred Blue rushed for 14 yards on five carries and caught an 11-yard touchdown in the Texans'... Blue was the vulture on the opening-drive 11-yard score after Arian Foster managed 59 rushing yards to get the Texans near the goal line. Foster is an every-down back,...
Oct 20 11:09PM Read More
Ryan Fitzpatrick - QB
Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 21-of-32 passes for 262 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception... Fitzpatrick played well for much of the first half, leading the Texans on three consecutive scoring drives to open the game. It was a train wreck thereafter. One play...
Oct 20 10:56PM Read More
Arian Foster - RB
Arian Foster rushed for 102 yards on 20 carries in the Texans' 30-23, Week 7 loss to the... Foster got off to a blazing start, rushing for 59 yards on the Texans' 94-yard opening touchdown drive, but was vultured by Alfred Blue for the 11-yard touchdown catch to...
Oct 20 10:47PM Read More
Jadeveon Clowney - LB
Jadeveon Clowney (knee) is inactive for Monday night's Week 7 game against the Steelers. Clowney's lateral agility wasn't where the Texans wanted it to be in pre-game warmups. He's been out since undergoing knee surgery after Week 1. Whitney Mercilus is...
Oct 20 6:09PM Read More
DeAndre Hopkins - WR
DeAndre Hopkins (hand) is probable for Week 7. The Texans listed Hopkins on the injury report, but his status was never in doubt. He'll be a WR3 for Monday night against the Steelers.
Oct 18 2:54PM Read More
Arian Foster - RB
Arian Foster (groin) is probable for Monday night's game against the Steelers. Foster was limited on Thursday, but practiced in full the last two days. He should have another heavy workload against a Steelers defense that's allowing 4.4 yards per carry...
Oct 18 2:48PM Read More
Andre Johnson - WR
Andre Johnson (ankle) was upgraded to full in Saturday's practice and is listed as probable for... Johnson is good to go for Monday night's matchup with the Steelers. He's Rotoworld's No. 15 receiver this week.
Oct 18 2:39PM Read More
Jadeveon Clowney - LB
Texans OLB Jadeveon Clowney (knee) is listed as questionable for Monday night's game against... Clowney got in two limited practices this week, but said he still "can't run laterally." He could be held out in an attempt to get fully healthy for Week 8. If...
Oct 18 2:20PM Read More
Jadeveon Clowney - LB
Texans OLB Jadeveon Clowney (knee) returned to practice Friday. It was Clowney's first practice since undergoing knee surgery in Week 1. He's expected to be a game-time decision for Monday night. Clowney will likely be on a limited snap...
Oct 17 6:08PM Read More
Arian Foster - RB
Arian Foster (groin) was upgraded to full in Friday's practice. Foster suffered a groin injury in last Thursday's loss to the Colts, but his Week 7 status isn't in doubt. He should be fine for Monday night against the Steelers.
Oct 17 6:02PM Read More
Andre Johnson - WR
Andre Johnson (ankle) remained limited in Friday's practice. The Texans are limiting Johnson's practice reps, but he's expected to play on Monday night. Johnson is Rotoworld's No. 15 receiver this week.
Oct 17 5:53PM Read More
DeAndre Hopkins - WR
DeAndre Hopkins is listed on the Week 7 injury report with a hand issue, but is practicing in... Hopkins must have tweaked something in last week's loss to the Colts. It won't affect his WR3 status for Week 7.
Oct 16 4:22PM Read More