History says Bourn will be a bust

History says Bourn will be a bust
November 6, 2012, 1:15 pm
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CSNHouston Staff

HardballTalk.com has a story about former Astros outfielder Michael Bourn, who is hoping to cash in as a free agent this offseason, whether it's through re-signing with the Braves or joining another franchise.

However, author Matthew Pouliot theorizes that Bourn will be a free-agent bust. You can read the entire article here, but some of his reasons are:

  • "The big problem with Bourn is that he strikes out a great deal for the hitter he is. In fact, he’s struck out in 20.2 percent of his plate appearances through his seven seasons, all while hitting just 22 homers."
  • "While OPS+ isn’t the most suitable method for measuring his value, it says something that he comes in at 90. He’s not in the same class as guys like Kenny Lofton, Willie Wilson and some of the other speedy center fielders in the past. Exactly 100 major leaguers since 1901 have stolen 200 bases through age 29. Bourn’s OPS+ ranks 85th of the group."
  • "Here are the 10 players most similar to Bourn through age 29, according to Baseball Reference.

    1. Max Flack
    2. Brett Butler
    3. Dave Collins
    4. Roger Cedeno
    5. Brian Hunter
    6. Albie Peterson
    7. Solly Hofman
    8. Johnny Bates
    9. Bob Beschler
    10. Rudy Law"

    What do you think? Will Michael Bourn be a free-agent bust?